Imo the scary threat model is almost never spontaneous or low-probability behavior. Scary agents are likely to be misaligned due to intense optimization pressure. Sure there could be initial randomness that seeds some preferences we don't want, but I don't think that alone is scary without optimization pressure to do long-term strategy on particular goals and therefore protect those misaligned goals.

So I think the persona stuff is interesting, but less relevant if the personas don't have strategic depth? Like Syndey Bing is interesting but it wouldn't be very coherent to talk about that persona scheming