# @davidad — 2026-01-15

♥533 ↻56 · https://x.com/davidad/status/2011845180484133071

@gcolbourn Yes. In 2024 I would have said it’s about 40-50% likely that LLMs scaled up to ASI would end up killing us all; now I would say that it’s only about 5-8% likely even with no additional progress on alignment, and more like 1-2% likely simpliciter.

tags: author:davidad, kind:tweet, thread-context, year:2026